I tweeted about this yesterday, but I’m gonna put the take here because maybe you’re already freaking out about Tuesday and starting to drink heavily. Here’s the deal: Donald Trump is going to get his ass kicked. Anyone who says otherwise is either a) afraid of jinxing it and/or making Hillary Clinton voters complacent (understandable); b) afraid of being wrong (Nate Silver); c) supporting Trump; or d) interested in making this a “horse race” for the sake of maintaining public interest (most of the television media, along with grotesque shitbags like Mark Halperin).
But this isn’t close, and never was. The evidence right there in front of you, if you care to notice. Donald Trump has never led in an aggregate of polls for any significant stretch of time. He hasn’t personally raised any money for his campaign in over a month. He lost all three debates. He’s made virtually no effort to get his voters to the polls, instead relying on a Republican party that is being badly outspent and reduced to waging repugnant (and likely illegal) voter-suppression efforts that—despite being successful in some small areas—will ultimately turn legions more voters against them.
He also made no effort to consolidate his party, and that apathy was on full display at the RNC. It ain’t like the guy has done much to win them over since then, either. Republicans dislike their candidate far more than Democrats dislike theirs. Yes, there is a very loud and visible contingent of Trump voters, especially online. But that army of Nazi Frogs tends to over-amplify Trump’s support, just like commenters are rarely representative of the full audience for any web post (wait for the comments on this post to fill if you require proof).
Trump is basically counting on voters to come out for him based on the sheer force of his personality, which is utterly repellent. Early voting already indicates that he’s fucked. Sure, he has a “path” to victory, if he wins a handful of states he has little chance of winning, slays a dragon, walks across a tightrope while balancing a baseball bat in his tiny palm, and recites the alphabet backwards and in Greek. It’s not akin to missing a chip shot field goal, or an underdog winning the World Series, or any other dumb sports analogy.
To believe that this butternut turd has any shot to win the Presidency is to believe that there is a sizable portion of the electorate that will break his way at the last moment, and there isn’t. I’m sure there are some undecided voters out there, but Larry David had those people pegged ages ago. Undecided voters tend to be idiots, liars, and/or attention whores, and there are always far fewer of them than it seems. More people support Clinton, and Clinton will get more of her people to vote than Trump will. Hence, asskicking.
Of course, none of this should discourage you from voting. If anything, you should be even more excited to vote on Tuesday, to experience the immense satisfaction of flushing Trump down the toilet for good. More important, you could also potentially help to deal Republicans the down-ballot losses they so richly deserve for supporting this tasteless, dictatorial shitbag. That’s where the real suspense is.
But the main event is settled. Donald Trump is going to get his ass handed to him, because he is bottom-feeding scum, and most voters figured that out a long, long time ago.